Extreme Weather and Cop 21

Now that COP21 is coming to an end and world leaders are making their final negations and pushes to get an agreement done, analysis on how this agreement will affect climate extremes can begin to be made. The first subject that I would like to comment on is the implementation of early warning signs and predictions around the world. These early warning signs and predictions are made to predict climate extremes and lower the vulnerability of people around the globe, especially those in third world countries. This is more important to those who live in third world countries because they do not have enough technology to protect themselves if those disasters were to strike. Therefore, I believe it is very important that at the end of COP21 many countries donate to that cause because it will save many lives. The next matter that i would like to comment on is the limit on global temperature. There has misconception lately regarding the exact numbers and what they exactly mean. First I would like to say that 2˚C is a social number and has no correlation to being a "safe" number. Of course 2˚C is much safer than 3˚C, however, if the temperature still rises to a max 2˚C, its affects will still be felt. Climate extremes such as flooding, heat waves and droughts will still occur. It is possible that some Pacific Islands will flood and may even go under water completely. With this being said I think that it is important that policy makers aim to bring that number down. The lower the limit we are able to set, the safer the world will be. Again, this issue like the last, effects non-developed countries significantly more than developed countries. The United States is not likely to flood if temperatures do rise to 2˚C, however, like said before, some Island countries might. With this in mind, I think it is crucial that the policy makers for one, get an agreement done. Secondly, I would like to see a reasonably low limit for global temperature rise in order to protect as many people around the world as possible.

12/9/15: Relating climate extremes to a new draft

Today a new version of the draft that signifies a climate agreement at COP21 was published. This draft has three options to limit global temperature rise. These options according to the UNFCCC (2015) are,  "Option 1: below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, Option 2: well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels [and to [rapidly] scale up global efforts to limit temperature increase to below 1.5 °C] [,while recognizing that in some regions and vulnerable ecosystems high risks are projected even for warming above 1.5 °C], Option 3: below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, taking into account the best available science, equity" (p.2). In my personal opinion all of these options are viable in order to combat climate extremes. The fight against global temperature rise is one that the world cannot afford to lose. Seeing that every option in the new draft is sufficient to combat climate extremes, the next step is to determine which option best combats climate extremes. I believe that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5˚C would be the best option for not only climate extremes but also the rest of the world. Seeing that a 2˚C temperature rise is still very close to procuring devastating climate change affects, I believe that the lower we hold global temperatures the less climate change will impact the world. This can be directly related to climate extremes in the sense that the higher the temperature rises, the rate at which they occur and their intensity will also rise. Therefore I feel there is a significant amount of data to backup a limit of 1.5˚C global temperature rise.

12/8/15. 1.5˚C or 2˚C?

Recently at Cop21 international leaders have a new debate on their hands. There has been a push by the Pacific Islands and Australia to implement a goal to keep global temperature rise to 1.5˚C instead of the more agreed upon 2˚C. So some would ask, what is the huge difference? Well to the Pacific Islands and Australia there is much at risk here. The 0.5˚C difference could mean keeping their Island  and low lying coastal homes, or perhaps seeing them be flooded by the rising ocean. Holding global temperature rise is definitely an ambitious goal, so the question is, is it possible? The government of New Zealand doesn't think so. They say, "“I just don’t want to see the conference fall over on something, which at the end of the day is just an aspirational goal.” This is just one countries opinion however. In my personal opinion I think that 1.5˚C is a great place to aim, especially in regards to climate extremes. Limiting global temperature rise to to 1.5˚C would drastically slow the increasing rate as well as severity of climate change. This is important because some climate extremes are particularly dangerous the higher global temperature rises. A few of these climate extremes are drought, flooding, and heat waves. Many of these climate extremes would impact underdeveloped countries the most. This is a major problem because these countries have yet had the opportunity to develop any adaptation or defense mechanisms to protect themselves from these climate extremes. With this being said, it would prove to be catastrophic if they struck with a high severity in the near future. This is why developed countries should take the lead and aim for an ambitious goal to limit global temperature rise and protect those who can not protect themselves. So my conclusion bring me to the decision that more humans can limit global temperature rise, the more they will be able to limit the rate and harmfulness of climate extremes. 1.5˚C is the way to go if it possible.

COP 21, December 3

            There are a couple new developing stories I would like to talk about today regarding COP 21.  There are two important topics that have been discussed today which play a major role in combatting climate change as well as supporting adaptation and mitigation efforts. These subjects are, keeping global temperature rise to 2˚C and working on improving early warning systems for weather. Both of these topics are within my research area for my white paper. I personally believe that keeping global temperature rise to 2˚C is one of the most important goals that need to be looked at and achieved at COP21. Right now, according to Dr. Katherine Watts in order to keep global temperature rise under 2˚C the world must limit its CO2 emissions to under 1 gigatonne. This means that the nations meeting at COP21 must give their best efforts to come to some sort of agreements to make this happen. In regards to the efforts to increase early warning systems for extreme weather, this is another important topic. Extreme weather has been battering third world countries and those countries who have a high vulnerability to these catastrophes. It is important that countries invest to improve these systems in order to protect third world countries. On December 3^rd, Germanwatch presented to the press on global cliamte risk index. Their presentation showed that the top 10 countries in the world feeling the hardest impacts of climate extremes and climate change are indeed third world countries. Also, later on December 3, France as well as other developed countries decided to pledge money to the cause and plan to increase early detection systems significantly over the next decade.

UNFCCC Paris 12/2/15

Recently a lot has been going on in Paris. I think the event that sticks out most to me is the current agreement between France and Africa. Early today, December 2nd, France has pledged to give Africa 2 billion Euros by the year 2020. To me, this is incredible. France wants to set a precedent for what other countries should also do. According to the UNFCCC, "Africa is being hit hard by the consequences of global warming, yet it is responsible for only 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. “There is an ecological debt that the world needs to pay back to Africa”, said the French President." This agreement made by France should encourage and set an example of what other countries whom are responsible for greenhouse gas emissions should do. The more countries who step up and pledge money to third world countries the easier it will be for them to implement renewable energy in their countries. The next thing I would like to talk about is the focus on forests and agriculture today. The leaders want to raise the stock on carbon in soil, and by doing this, keep carbon in the ground. Soils can store huge quantities of carbon and contributing to limitation of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. This argues that by raising carbon stocks and keeping carbon in the soil it will positively affect and reduce the amount of carbon going into the atmosphere. This is just one way that the UNFCCC is looking to combat climate change so far. I am looking forward to more progress and updates as the conference continues.

UNFCCC Week 1: 12/1/15

This week has been the start of the UNFCCC in Paris. So far the leaders have given their opening speeches and a few documents have been introduced. I would like to talk about president Obama's opening speech. President Obama opened up his speech by addressing France and the recent terrorist attacks. He gave them condolences and promised the United State's report. I think that this part of the president's speech is interesting in light of everything that has been occurring over the last few weeks. I think it is very cool how president Obama is able tie the fight against terrorism into the the fight against climate change. As he continues on through his speech I think he does a good job at providing examples from the US of how he has seen climate change first hand as well as how it is affecting his nation. He recognizes that the US (as well as other countries) have much work to do in order to meet reasonable climate goals. He says, "I’ve come here personally, as the leader of the world’s largest economy and the second largest emitter, to say that the United States of America not only recognizes our role in creating this problem, we embrace our responsibility to do something about it." He next explains what a successful agreement would look like. He explains, "So our task here in Paris is to turn these achievements into an enduring framework for human progress -- not a stopgap solution, but a long-term strategy that gives the world confidence in a low-carbon future." I believe that if president Obama and other world leaders are able to do this they will set precedent over the next few weeks that is needed to successfully combat global warming.