Extreme Weather and Cop 21

Now that COP21 is coming to an end and world leaders are making their final negations and pushes to get an agreement done, analysis on how this agreement will affect climate extremes can begin to be made. The first subject that I would like to comment on is the implementation of early warning signs and predictions around the world. These early warning signs and predictions are made to predict climate extremes and lower the vulnerability of people around the globe, especially those in third world countries. This is more important to those who live in third world countries because they do not have enough technology to protect themselves if those disasters were to strike. Therefore, I believe it is very important that at the end of COP21 many countries donate to that cause because it will save many lives. The next matter that i would like to comment on is the limit on global temperature. There has misconception lately regarding the exact numbers and what they exactly mean. First I would like to say that 2˚C is a social number and has no correlation to being a "safe" number. Of course 2˚C is much safer than 3˚C, however, if the temperature still rises to a max 2˚C, its affects will still be felt. Climate extremes such as flooding, heat waves and droughts will still occur. It is possible that some Pacific Islands will flood and may even go under water completely. With this being said I think that it is important that policy makers aim to bring that number down. The lower the limit we are able to set, the safer the world will be. Again, this issue like the last, effects non-developed countries significantly more than developed countries. The United States is not likely to flood if temperatures do rise to 2˚C, however, like said before, some Island countries might. With this in mind, I think it is crucial that the policy makers for one, get an agreement done. Secondly, I would like to see a reasonably low limit for global temperature rise in order to protect as many people around the world as possible.

12/9/15: Relating climate extremes to a new draft

Today a new version of the draft that signifies a climate agreement at COP21 was published. This draft has three options to limit global temperature rise. These options according to the UNFCCC (2015) are,  "Option 1: below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, Option 2: well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels [and to [rapidly] scale up global efforts to limit temperature increase to below 1.5 °C] [,while recognizing that in some regions and vulnerable ecosystems high risks are projected even for warming above 1.5 °C], Option 3: below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, taking into account the best available science, equity" (p.2). In my personal opinion all of these options are viable in order to combat climate extremes. The fight against global temperature rise is one that the world cannot afford to lose. Seeing that every option in the new draft is sufficient to combat climate extremes, the next step is to determine which option best combats climate extremes. I believe that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5˚C would be the best option for not only climate extremes but also the rest of the world. Seeing that a 2˚C temperature rise is still very close to procuring devastating climate change affects, I believe that the lower we hold global temperatures the less climate change will impact the world. This can be directly related to climate extremes in the sense that the higher the temperature rises, the rate at which they occur and their intensity will also rise. Therefore I feel there is a significant amount of data to backup a limit of 1.5˚C global temperature rise.

12/8/15. 1.5˚C or 2˚C?

Recently at Cop21 international leaders have a new debate on their hands. There has been a push by the Pacific Islands and Australia to implement a goal to keep global temperature rise to 1.5˚C instead of the more agreed upon 2˚C. So some would ask, what is the huge difference? Well to the Pacific Islands and Australia there is much at risk here. The 0.5˚C difference could mean keeping their Island  and low lying coastal homes, or perhaps seeing them be flooded by the rising ocean. Holding global temperature rise is definitely an ambitious goal, so the question is, is it possible? The government of New Zealand doesn't think so. They say, "“I just don’t want to see the conference fall over on something, which at the end of the day is just an aspirational goal.” This is just one countries opinion however. In my personal opinion I think that 1.5˚C is a great place to aim, especially in regards to climate extremes. Limiting global temperature rise to to 1.5˚C would drastically slow the increasing rate as well as severity of climate change. This is important because some climate extremes are particularly dangerous the higher global temperature rises. A few of these climate extremes are drought, flooding, and heat waves. Many of these climate extremes would impact underdeveloped countries the most. This is a major problem because these countries have yet had the opportunity to develop any adaptation or defense mechanisms to protect themselves from these climate extremes. With this being said, it would prove to be catastrophic if they struck with a high severity in the near future. This is why developed countries should take the lead and aim for an ambitious goal to limit global temperature rise and protect those who can not protect themselves. So my conclusion bring me to the decision that more humans can limit global temperature rise, the more they will be able to limit the rate and harmfulness of climate extremes. 1.5˚C is the way to go if it possible.

COP 21, December 3

            There are a couple new developing stories I would like to talk about today regarding COP 21.  There are two important topics that have been discussed today which play a major role in combatting climate change as well as supporting adaptation and mitigation efforts. These subjects are, keeping global temperature rise to 2˚C and working on improving early warning systems for weather. Both of these topics are within my research area for my white paper. I personally believe that keeping global temperature rise to 2˚C is one of the most important goals that need to be looked at and achieved at COP21. Right now, according to Dr. Katherine Watts in order to keep global temperature rise under 2˚C the world must limit its CO2 emissions to under 1 gigatonne. This means that the nations meeting at COP21 must give their best efforts to come to some sort of agreements to make this happen. In regards to the efforts to increase early warning systems for extreme weather, this is another important topic. Extreme weather has been battering third world countries and those countries who have a high vulnerability to these catastrophes. It is important that countries invest to improve these systems in order to protect third world countries. On December 3^rd, Germanwatch presented to the press on global cliamte risk index. Their presentation showed that the top 10 countries in the world feeling the hardest impacts of climate extremes and climate change are indeed third world countries. Also, later on December 3, France as well as other developed countries decided to pledge money to the cause and plan to increase early detection systems significantly over the next decade.

UNFCCC Paris 12/2/15

Recently a lot has been going on in Paris. I think the event that sticks out most to me is the current agreement between France and Africa. Early today, December 2nd, France has pledged to give Africa 2 billion Euros by the year 2020. To me, this is incredible. France wants to set a precedent for what other countries should also do. According to the UNFCCC, "Africa is being hit hard by the consequences of global warming, yet it is responsible for only 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. “There is an ecological debt that the world needs to pay back to Africa”, said the French President." This agreement made by France should encourage and set an example of what other countries whom are responsible for greenhouse gas emissions should do. The more countries who step up and pledge money to third world countries the easier it will be for them to implement renewable energy in their countries. The next thing I would like to talk about is the focus on forests and agriculture today. The leaders want to raise the stock on carbon in soil, and by doing this, keep carbon in the ground. Soils can store huge quantities of carbon and contributing to limitation of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. This argues that by raising carbon stocks and keeping carbon in the soil it will positively affect and reduce the amount of carbon going into the atmosphere. This is just one way that the UNFCCC is looking to combat climate change so far. I am looking forward to more progress and updates as the conference continues.

UNFCCC Week 1: 12/1/15

This week has been the start of the UNFCCC in Paris. So far the leaders have given their opening speeches and a few documents have been introduced. I would like to talk about president Obama's opening speech. President Obama opened up his speech by addressing France and the recent terrorist attacks. He gave them condolences and promised the United State's report. I think that this part of the president's speech is interesting in light of everything that has been occurring over the last few weeks. I think it is very cool how president Obama is able tie the fight against terrorism into the the fight against climate change. As he continues on through his speech I think he does a good job at providing examples from the US of how he has seen climate change first hand as well as how it is affecting his nation. He recognizes that the US (as well as other countries) have much work to do in order to meet reasonable climate goals. He says, "I’ve come here personally, as the leader of the world’s largest economy and the second largest emitter, to say that the United States of America not only recognizes our role in creating this problem, we embrace our responsibility to do something about it." He next explains what a successful agreement would look like. He explains, "So our task here in Paris is to turn these achievements into an enduring framework for human progress -- not a stopgap solution, but a long-term strategy that gives the world confidence in a low-carbon future." I believe that if president Obama and other world leaders are able to do this they will set precedent over the next few weeks that is needed to successfully combat global warming.

Topic Presentations

This past week our class got the opportunity to present and listen to each other's research presentations. To start i think that it was very beneficial to everyone to get a chance to listen to each other and learn about other peoples topics. This enabled the whole class to learn much more about COP21 than just the importance of their own topic. I think that listening to each other's topics, for me at least, helped people understand the expansive area of topics that COP21 is crucial to help save. I learned much more about topics that even pertained to my topic or was closely related. I think that explaining our topics out loud was also very good for each person. It enabled us to dig deep into our subject and inform others of what we were working on. This was important to me because it felt as if I was able to explain the importance of my subject to a group who understood the basics. I think our class as a whole did a good job explaining and setting precedent for what needs to be done at COP21 in Paris. Now that COP21 is so close, it is important that policy makers take actions to make change.

Environmental Politics

This week our class got the opportunity to study and better comprehend the environmental politics. The idea of politics supporting or going against environmentalism involves several different ideologies. In class we talked about 4 different ideal world views. The first perspective is that of a market liberal. Market liberals wish to have a laize faire like economy and highly support economic growth. To market liberals the economy comes first, then then environment. They believe that there must be a certain level of economic growth before environment protection becomes a factor. After a peak growth is achieved, they then believe the environment should be protected.  Next on the list are institutionalists. Institutionalists believe many of the same thing that market liberals believe, however, they are also heavily in support of technology, which can be used to advance the economy and protect the environment. Bio-environmentalists are another ideological group who believe in protecting the environment at all costs. They think that people are the problem and are harming the environment. They are also strongly against economics. The last group are social greens. This ideology strongly supports environmental justice. It believes that globalization destroys livelihoods and should be stopped. They are heavily in favor of protecting third world countries and want developed countries to stop emitting greenhouse gases. Along with the bio-environmentalists they are very skeptical about market liberals as well as institutionalists. This week has been a little confusing for me in the sense that I do not know a whole lot about politics, but i have definitely learned a lot.

Technological solutions

This week we talked about technological solutions of climate change. On tuesday we got to play a game in groups of two and act as the president of European countries. Our goal was to keep our rating high enough to stay in office and at the same time meet our required levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This game was extremely challenging because as you would try to balance CO2 emission reduction with public ratings various things such as not enough water, food, or energy would be issue. Also, disaster would randomly occur to simulate the environment causing a need for action which you had to take. When it was all over, my partner and I ended up getting booted out of office because of poor public ratings. This was because we had to take drastic measures to try meet our CO2 emission goals. I think that this game was educational in the fact that it shows how hard it is to make changes and meet public standards at the same time. Moving on, Thursday presenter Troy Knight came and spoke about geo-engineering. We conversed about different methods of geo-engineering and their effects on the environment and humans. I think the most interesting geo-engineering concept we talked about was mirrors in space. This would reflect light and cool the earth. Although it is a very skeptical method, I could see how it could be possible. Troy really kept me interested during his presentation and made me want to know more about the subject.

Research Guide

Scholarly

IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.

            Abstract: The IPPC Special Report on Managing the Risksof Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) goes in depth identifying the risks and relationships between climate change, extreme weather, and climate events. Extreme weather events and climate events can procure dangerous situations for society, sustainable development, and the environment. Exposure and vulnerability are a societal problem when talking about extreme weather and climate events. Specific areas around the world will suffer more than others due to climate extremes. Finally, the importance of managing the risk of disaster as well as adaptation to new climate extremes is an essential part when speaking about extreme events. .

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events; Implications for Food Production, Plant Diseases, and Pests. Kluwer Academic Publishers (2001-12-01).A Rosenzweig, Cynthia, A Iglesias, Ana, A Yang, X.B., A Epstein, PaulR., A Chivian, Eric. P. 90-104

            Abstract: Climate change and extreme weather events: Implicatios for food production, plant diseases, and pests, is a journal that heavily focuses on climate change and extreme weather events and their effects on the environment. The variability of climate change is something that is hard to track because of its unpredictability. Next a focus becomes global warming and its trends while implementing weather extremes and their relationships. This relationship is important to understand as global warming effects weather extremes directly. One example of this is the specific climate event called El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Finally, weather extremes and their effect on crop yield, pests, and disease must not be overlooked as they are all crucial parts to our environment, human health, and food chain.

Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future Climate Change. Gerald A. Meehl, Francis Zwiers, Jenni Evans, Thomas Knutson, Linda Mearns, and Peter Whetton, 2000: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 427–436.

           

            Abstract: Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future and Climate Change, is a document that focuses on explaining the knowledge of possible future changes in the statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes. Crucial topics regarding extreme weather and climate events include temperature, precipitation, extra tropical storms, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and tropical cyclones. Each of these are effected in a particular way by climate change. This document also discusses their findings and research with other model studies of weather and climate extremes in a future climate and talks about their differences and similarities.

Smith, M. D. (2011). The ecological role of climate extremes: current understanding and future prospects. Journal Of Ecology, 99(3), 651-655. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01833.x

           

            Abstract: Ecological Consequences of Climate Extremes focuses on climate extremes and the consequences they can procure for ecological systems and human welfare. Global climate change is expected to increase in frequency and intensity, which directly correlates to extreme weather events. This is important because as climate changes extreme weather will increase and the effects could be deadly. Rarity of climate extremes as well as extreme climate events is also an issue because it makes it extremely difficult to predict trends. These two topics are contrasted and compared, all the while their relationship explained. This topic it is made clear that is hard to create trends for “rare” events because they do not happen often, however, these events are occurring more often.

           

Trenberth, Kevin E. Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5, Springer Netherlands, 2012-11-01, P 283-290

           

            Abstract: Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change is an article that focuses specifically on the relationship of climate extremes and anthropogenic climate change. A warmer climate due to climate change plays a direct role in climate extremes. This is shown by research within the article. Next, the ability to understand the role humans play in anthropogenic climate change is crucial in understanding how humans are affecting climate extremes. This is shown by the fact that anthropogenic climate change reflects the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which then directly is known to correlate to an increase in climate extremes. Lastly, it is important to be able to understand how some people view natural variability and how it can be used to mask climate extremes as well as their trends.

Non Scholarly

Kristie L. Ebi and Jordana K. Schmier Epidemiol Rev (July 2005). A Stitch in Time: Improving Public Health Early Warning Systems for Extreme Weather Events 27 (1): 115-121 doi:10.1093/epirev/mxi006

           

            Abstract: A Stitch in Time: Improving Public Health Early Warning Systems for Extreme Weather is a document that extenuates the relationship of extreme weather events and their relationship to public health. Recent trends show that extreme weather is costing countries all over the globe billions of dollars in damages each year. Each extreme weather event has the ability to not only cause damage but impact the health of a human beings as well as populations as a whole across the world. These facts lead to the conclusion that one solution that would enable humans to help defend themselves against extreme weather would be more accurate and timely forecasting by meteorologists everywhere. In conclusion the importance of accurate and timely forecasting by meteorologists as well as having proper response plan to extreme weather well better protect the human race across the globe.

Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts. David R. Easterling, Gerald A. Meehl, Camille Parmesan, Stanley A. Changnon, Thomas R. Karl, and Linda O. Mearns Science 22 September 2000: 289 (5487), 20682074. [DOI:10.1126/science.289.5487.2068]

            Abstract: Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts presents the major concern with a potential change in climate and the relationship with extreme events that could occur in future climates. Models show changes in extreme events for future climate. These changes are described as extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in precipitation. In addition the society will be impacted negatively from climate extreme, as they will struggle with sensitivity to extreme weather. Plants and animals face extinction, and biological complexion will be altered due to climate change and extreme weather. 

Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters. W. Neil Adger, Terry P. Hughes, Carl Folke, Stephen R. Carpenter, and Johan Rockström. Science 12 August 2005: 309 (5737), 1036-1039. [DOI:10.1126/science.1112122]

            Abstract: This article articulates social and ecological vulnerability with respect to disaster and climate extremes. Vulnerability is by the amount of resilience exists before and after climate extremes occur. The amount of resilience procured by local, national, and international communities is of utmost importance when minimizing the consequences of climate extremes. Social and ecological systems must include diverse and resilient mechanisms to live and adapt to unexpected climate extremes.   

Extremes Overview. (n.d.). Retrieved October 25, 2015, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmJfsjYfVNU

            Abstract: This video emphasizes that the best way to identify climate change is through climate extremes. It directly correlates an increase in climate extremes to an increase in climate change, specifically a change in temperature. There is evidence that as global temperature rises and more water vapor is evaporated into the atmosphere, climate extremes occur more often. In particular, heat waves will become more intense and heavy increases in precipitation.

Huber, D., & Gulledge, J. (2011, December 1). Extreme Weather and Climate Change | Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Retrieved November 8, 2015. http://www.c2es.org/publications/extreme-weather-and-climate-change

            Abstract: Thousands of Record-breaking climate events support long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and wildfires. These observed trends paired with the understanding of the climate system explicitly show that global warming is increasing the risk of extreme climate and weather events. Debates revolving around whether single weather events are caused by climate change are not logical but single weather events offer important information about social vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing climate change requires a reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This cannot completely stop the future risk of climate change so implementing adaptive systems for societies is key.

Mathiesen, K. (2015, April 27). Extreme weather already on increase due to climate change, study finds. Retrieved November 11, 2015, from http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/27/extreme-weather-already-on-increase-due-to-climate-change-study-finds

            Abstract: This article discusses how extreme weather has already started to increase due to climate change. Extreme heat waves and heavy precipitation are occurring more regularly around the world. In fact, extreme weather used to occur once every one thousand days and is now being recorded three to four times once every one thousand days. This is significant because nations around the globe and in specific areas are vulnerable to extreme events. Developed nations like the United States, UK, and others are able to cope with weather extremes, however, nations near the equator and in undeveloped are not able to cope with an increase in extreme weather and will suffer greatly if global temperature and an increase in extreme weather continues.

Zurich, E. (2015, March 27). Climate change does not cause extreme winters, new study shows. Retrieved November 11, 2015, from http://phys.org/news/2015-03-climate-extreme-winters.html

           

            Abstract: This journal is written in a climate skeptic’s perspective.  Its focus is on climate change and how it does not affect weather extremes. It states that climate change will cause temperature fluctuation to decrease. It explains how scientists claim that the different between temperatures at the poles and equator is getting smaller and that they are suggesting that one-day air masses from all directions will have the same direction and that this is an extreme theoretical approach. Finally, it talks about how weather extremes will become rarer due to less fluctuation in temperature.

Schwartz, J. (2015, November 5). Scientists Study Links Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather. Retrieved November 11, 2015, from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/science/climate-change-extreme-weather-global-warming.html

            Abstract:  Scientists have found links that relate climate change and extreme weather.  It is made clear however, that each situation is unique and just because climate change may attribute to one kind of climate extreme such as heat waves, it may not directly relate to wildfires or drought. One statement that scientists were able to confidently make is, “Human-caused climate change greatly increased the likelihood and intensity. “ Predicting climate extremes is still difficult to do to, however, forecasting extreme events gives the world important information enabling it to plan responses and prepare for extreme weather events.

Rice, D. (2015, June 23). Extreme weather events linked to climate change, study says. Retrieved November 11, 2015, from http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/06/22/extreme-weather-climate-change-global-warming/29124803/http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/06/22/extreme-weather-climate-change-global-warming/29124803/

            Abstract: This article discusses the answer to the question whether climate change extenuates extreme weather or not. The answer is yes. The burning of fossil fuels release Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (C02) into the atmosphere. This excess gas in the atmosphere is attributed to warming global temperatures as well as sea level rise.  This information comes from Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Trenberth  also believes that human influenced climate change should has played a role in extreme weather events in the past, such as the Colorado floods and Super storm sandy.